NEW DELHI – US President Donald Trump’s doubling of tariffs on India would deal a severe blow to the country’s exporters, denting growth in the world’s fourth-largest economy and putting jobs in labour-intensive sectors at risk.

The first tranche of

25 per cent tariffs kicked into effect

But Mr Trump on Aug 6 imposed an additional 25 per cent on India over its purchase of Russian oil, to come into effect within 21 days.

“They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian war machine,” Mr Trump had written on his Truth Social platform on Aug 4.

Mr Trump’s latest executive order marked yet another escalation in a feud with a key Asian partner, which could reverse decades of strategic courtship by his predecessors to counter China influence in the Indo-Pacific.

It would also hurt India’s ambitions to more than double its exports from US$437.4 billion last year to US$1 trillion by 2030.

“Given that there is a 21-day cooling period before the 50 per cent tariff kicks in, we expect some negotiation to take place to lower these rates,” Ms Sonal Badhan, an economist with Bank of Baroda, told The Straits Times.

“For now, domestic fundamentals remain strong, and India being a consumption-oriented economy rather than an export-oriented economy will work in its favour,” she added, referring to how most businesses in India cater to the domestic market.

As it stands, Bank of Baroda estimates 25 per cent tariffs on India’s exports to the US may take 0.2 percentage points off its growth forecast for the Indian economy to 6.4 per cent in 2025.

Ms Radhika Rao, senior economist and executive direc...