Super Bowl LX 2026 on prediction markets: what to wager

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The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots will go head-to-head in Super Bowl LX, opening up plenty of opportunities to bet via prediction markets.

For many, half of the fun of big sporting events like Super Bowl LX is betting on outcomes, and there’s plenty to choose from on prediction market giants Polymarket, Kalshi, and Gemini this weekend. The obvious one is, of course, the winner itself, with the Seattle Seahawks the favorites heading into the weekend at 67.6% across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini at the time of writing.

DeFi Rate reports that over $2.7 million (just a fraction of what is expected to be wagered on the Super Bowl across all gambling avenues) has already been wagered on the outcomes, underlining the huge amount of activity across the board with prediction markets.

What to wager on prediction markets during Super Bowl LX

The nature of prediction markets means there’s plenty more unique bets to wager on besides the obvious, with both Kalshi and Polymarket offering bets and props on a number of topics, from national anthem length to Gatorade color.

Right now, six markets stand out for their volume and liquidity, offering a snapshot of how expectations are forming as the game approaches.

Most Valuable Player

The Super Bowl MVP market is once again dominated by quarterbacks. Sam Darnold leads the board with a 44.2% implied probability, trading around +126. Drake Maye is next at 26.7%, priced near +275. The pricing follows a familiar pattern. Five of the past six Super Bowl MVP awards have gone to quarterbacks, and traders are clearly leaning on that history.

https://twitter.com/KalshiSports/status/2019470676889936211

Among non-quarterbacks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as the most popular alternative at 14.5%, trading in the mid-teens. Kenneth Walker III follows at 8.1%. Longer shots are also getting some action, with Rhamondre Stevenson and Rashid Shaheed both priced under two cents for bettors hoping for a surprise performance on the biggest stage.

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