WASHINGTON - With its defiant strikes on ships, Iran is making a paradoxical and explosively high-risk calculation – that it can boost its long-term deterrence through actions that invite new US attacks.

Iran, experts say, is also expecting that Trump, whatever his anger and bravado, does not want a return to all-out war, which could further spike oil prices and alienate US voters months before congressional elections.

Iran learned from the war launched by the United States and Israel on Feb 28 that its ultimate card is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow gateway for one-fifth of the world’s oil.

“They want recognition of Iran basically having control of the Strait of Hormuz. That is their bottom line. That is their leverage with the United States and the West that has replaced earlier enriching higher and higher levels of uranium,” said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.

“Fundamentally, they think time is on their side. They can suffer more than the Americans and the Gulf and that’s what they’re gambling on,” he said.

Trump has been declaring ceasefires with Iran since April 8, upsetting Israel, as oil prices soared and the United States struggled to find an easy way to dislodge Iranian forces from the adjacent Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s theocratic state, which has set up a system of fees that the United States describes as bribery, struck at least three commercial ships in recent days, according to the US military.

The United States responded with extensive strikes. Trump called the ceasefire “over” and vowe...