Explainer-Japan ruling party outlook darkens after coalition partner quits

4 weeks ago 78

TOKYO - Japan's Komeito quit the ruling coalition on Friday, dealing a blow to new Liberal Democratic Party leader Sanae Takaichi's premiership bid and potentially to her party's grip on power in the world's fourth-largest economy. 

TAKAICHI'S PM BID JUST GOT HARDER 

The LDP-Komeito coalition had lost its combined majority in both houses of parliament over the past year under outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Takaichi, however, was widely expected to have a solid chance of becoming Japan's first female prime minister with the support of Komeito when parliament votes to select a new premier this month, as the LDP is still by far the biggest party. 

But if the three major opposition parties - the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the Democratic Party for the People, and the Japan Innovation Party - put forward a unified candidate, their votes would exceed the number of seats held by the LDP alone in parliament's powerful lower chamber, potentially ending Takaichi's hopes.

The prime minister is picked by a simple majority vote in parliament, with runoff votes if there is no clear winner in the first round.

OPPOSITION FACES ITS OWN HURDLES TO UNITY 

Such a patched-up coalition would make a chaotic and fragile administration, with alliance members not seeing eye to eye on many key issues, analysts say.   

If the opposition parties failed to come up with a single candidate and chose to vote for their respective party leaders, Takaichi would still be elected prime minister.

Her minority government would have a tough time passing bills and moving the political process forward, however. Calling a snap election would also be risky now that her party has lost Komeito's election-related support, ending their 26-year partnership. 

WEAKENED LDP FACES LEGISLATIVE HURDLES

Komeito's departure also makes it harder for the LDP to pass budgets and ...

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