“It’s an interesting time in federalism.”

When Professor Steven Light said that in a recent ReadWrite interview, it landed with weight. He was sitting next to fellow Professor Kathryn Rand, his longtime collaborator on tribal gaming law and co-author of Indian Gaming Law and Policy, and the two were talking through a change that feels both sudden and far-reaching. Prediction markets, once a niche corner of finance, are now pushing into space long defined by tribal and state gaming systems.

The platforms allow users to trade contracts on the outcome of real-world events, from sports games to elections, in ways that can closely resemble traditional betting. However, they are forcing new questions about sovereignty, regulation, and who really controls the rules.

This tension was hard to miss at last week’s Indian Gaming Association Tradeshow and Convention. Tribal leaders, regulators, and industry voices gathered as legal disputes continue to intensify and uncertainty grow. 

“Today, our Board took decisive action to protect what generations before us fought to build,” IGA Chairman David Z. Bean said at the conference. “These so-called prediction markets are an attempt to bypass tribal authority and recast gambling as a financial product. We will not allow that. We will stand united to defend tribal sovereignty and the integrity of Indian gaming.”

The expansion of federally regulated event-based trading platforms has become one of the most urgent issues in Indian Country. Prediction markets have been seen to bypass the very frameworks tribes have spent decades building and defending, including IGRA compacts and recent enforcement wins against sweepstakes-style operators.

Prediction markets present a growing challenge to established Indian tribal gaming frameworks

For Rand, who is a visiting professor at Boyd Law, the concern is immediate. “I think that it’s fair to say...