ISTANBUL - Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan has probably never held more global sway: he will host the first direct Russia-Ukraine peace talks in three years on Thursday, days after his country's militant nemesis, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), dissolved.

His growing capital as international statesman - working towards stability in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and receiving accolades from U.S. President Donald Trump for it - is turbocharging Turkey's rising regional influence.

Yet the timing of it appears odd and even agonising to many at home who fear it could bolster his domestic political goals.

The arrest and jailing of Erdogan's main political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, prompted the largest protests in a decade in March and April over what critics called a politicised and anti-democratic legal crackdown.

Imamoglu denies the charges he faces, while Ankara denies the criticism of autocratic behaviour.

Yet these seemingly parallel universes - international versus domestic - underscore Erdogan's tendency over 22 years running Turkey to shift the focus abroad when political or economic problems are brewing at home.

In line with this pattern, Erdogan in May 2022 blocked the planned enlargement of NATO at a time when Turkey's inflation rate was soaring toward 85%, waiting until early last year to finally approve Sweden's membership bid in exchange for concessions.

"Erdogan has never been this pivotal of a player in geopolitics," said Birol Baskan, a Turkey-based political scientist. "There were dramatic twists and turns in geopolitics, with the re-election of Donald Trump of particular note, though I think Erdogan's biggest gain is indisputably Syria."

According to Turkish government officials, Erdogan's backing of Syrian rebels over the last decade finally paid off for them - and him - when they ousted former President Bashar al-Assad in December, leaving Ankara with heavy influence in Damascus and beyond as the region sought to recover from war.

Erdogan's sway grew in January when Trump returned to the White House, given their close ties in Trump's first term.

Trump, who boasts of "great relations" with Erdogan, said he will be a good host for Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul. He also said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio would make a last-minute trip there, and even floated attending in person.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, set to visit the Turkish capital Ankara on Wednesday, has dared Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to meet him in...