SINGAPORE – East Coast GRC is still a constituency to watch.

In the next general election, a quarter of its voters - some 40,000 in Joo Chiat’s private estates and Chai Chee’s Housing Board flats - will have come from a neighbouring constituency.

This influx, a disproportionate number of whom live in private housing, will create unpredictability for East Coast ahead of the polls, said political observers.

For one thing, Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) post-election surveys show that upper middle-class, better-educated voters are more likely to believe that political pluralism and having checks and balances in Parliament are important, said IPS senior research fellow Gillian Koh.

“Those broader political and governance principles will matter far more (in East Coast GRC) than anywhere else, where the day-to-day pocketbook and economic issues will weigh more heavily,” said Dr Koh.

There is also Joo Chiat’s electoral history. Joo Chiat gave the Workers’ Party a near-win in 2011, when it was a single-seat ward.

But since being absorbed into Marine Parade GRC in 2015, a growing number of voters there have thrown their weight behind the PAP’s Edwin Tong.

Another point of uncertainty is who will be fielded in the GRC.

In 2020, East Coast’s PAP slate - comprising Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, then-Senior Minister of State Maliki Osman, then-newcomer Tan Kiat How and backbenchers Jessica Tan and Cheryl Chan - won 53.39 per cent of the vote.

Their opponents, the Workers’ Party, were led by star candidate Nicole Seah and long-time member Terence Tan, along with Abdul Shariff Aboo Kassim, Kenneth Foo and Dylan Ng. The party improved on its 2015 showing.

It is unclear how much of either slate will contest again this year.

With the absorption of Minister for Culture, Community and Youth Edwin Tong’s Joo Chiat ward, political observers said it is unlikely that both he and DPM Heng would remain in the same constituency. Ms Tan is also in her fourth term as an MP, longer than the typical three-term tenure for PAP backbenchers.

On the WP front, Ms Seah and Mr Tan are no longer ...