MIAMI, April 6 - Republicans’ longstanding support among voters of Cuban and Venezuelan descent in South Florida, a cornerstone of the party’s regional success over the past decade, is showing signs of strain ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

A sluggish economy and high living costs, as well as President Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration agenda, complicate the party’s appeal to many Latino voters, creating a potential opening for Democrats in one of the GOP’s most reliable strongholds, according to about 50 business leaders, politicians of both parties and voters who spoke to Reuters.

The 2026 midterm could show Republican support is flagging among South Florida's Latino electorate, whose rightward shift helped the party sweep Miami‑Dade County in the 2024 presidential election for the first time in more than three decades. And if Democrats are successful in building coalitions among Latinos — which doesn't necessarily mean flipping House seats in November — it could last and pay off well beyond 2026, Democratic voters and party insiders say.

“I think there is a tremendous opportunity for the Democratic Party to make inroads,” said Marta Arnold, 80, who fled the Cuban Revolution with her family the night Fidel Castro took power on January 1, 1959, and who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 as an independent.

Democrats have been encouraged by a few recent votes: Emily Gregory flipped a Florida House district for them in March in an area that includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence, a district he won by 11 points in 2024. And in December, Democrat Eileen Higgins defeated Trump-backed candidate Emilio Gonzalez by 19 points for the Miami mayoral race.

Though early signs point to positive prospects for Democrats, they still have a hill to climb to convince staunch, skeptical Republican supporters to change their votes, according to more than a dozen interviews with Republican voters, party insiders and leaders in Miami.

"There's a 50-50 chance now," said Juan "Big Papa" Cardona, operator of D’Asis Guayaberas, on Calle Ocho in the heart of Little Havana in Miami. Cardona, who's&...