Dealmaker or ally: How Trump’s foreign policy could take shape in Asia

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Swinging one of the biggest clubs America has as he returned to office – tariffs – US President Donald Trump quickly prodded his two closest neighbours, Canada and Mexico, to tackle border security, stem illegal immigration and halt the flood of fentanyl into America. 

And now, this blunt tool of America’s unilateral action and economic coercion will play an outsized role in the next two weeks as Mr Trump shifts his focus to Asia.

Despite a public pronouncement on Feb 3 of an impending phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping “within the next 24 hours”, he played down expectations the following day and said he was in no hurry. 

His additional 10 per cent tariff on all products from China went into effect on Feb 4. China imposed retaliatory tariffs targeting gas, coal, farm machinery, car parts and other products from the US, which will take effect on Feb 10. China has also opened an investigation into Google for anticompetitive practices, placed Calvin Klein’s parent company on an “unreliable entity” blacklist and initially threatened to drag the US to the World Trade Organisation.

As both sides hunker down for a bruising trade war, Mr Trump will likely use the upcoming visits by Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to amass leverage against China and shrink its manoeuvring space.

These highly anticipated visits by leaders of the two Asian poles of the Indo-Pacific could hence offer clues of how US foreign policy towards Asia could play out over the next four years.

Japan, the avid partner

Holed up with preparations for the Feb 6-8 visit, Mr Ishiba knows how much hangs in the balance and how his performance with the mercurial but powerful Mr Trump, could shape the US-Japan alliance. 

Luckily, both sides see eye-to-eye on the more muscular defence posture Japan must embrace in ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific, amid a rising China and

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