Brazil next, US midterms coming, in impactful global election year

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LONDON, Oct 2 - Brazil's voters will choose from a field of presidential contenders with two familiar frontrunners on Sunday - President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro - in a closely watched race.

The contest is one of several remaining races out of some 40 worldwide this year that could impact financial markets.

Here's a look at the coming elections in focus for financial markets, and a roundup of those that have already happened:

BRAZIL

Polls show incumbent Lula and Flavio, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, are neck-and-neck, and an October 25 runoff is likely.

Flavio has sought to capitalise on cost-of-living concerns. Investors are broadly positive about Brazil, but fiscal worries, underpinned by rising spending, are the main issue.

"Fiscal fundamentals are the most concerning risk of a potential Lula re-election, and current (bond) spreads do not price that risk," said Ninety One portfolio manager Christine Reed.

Still, only a small portion of Brazil's spending is discretionary, meaning lasting adjustments would have to reach pensions, payrolls or social benefits.

Capital Economics said a Flavio win could boost equities between 10% and 20% and pull local currency bond yields down, while a Lula victory could lead to equity underperformance.

ISRAEL

Israeli voters will select members of the country's 120-seat parliament, the Knesset, in October 27 elections.

Polls suggest a defeat for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but no single party has ever won an outright majority, and a coalition typically forms governments.

Israel's economy has proved remarkably resilient to the Middle East conflict. But Moody's lowered its 2026 economic growth estimates, and raised its debt forecast, due to elevated geopolitical risks and fragile ceasefire agreements.

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