MALOPOLOVETSKE, Ukraine, April 10 - Mykola Maliienko, who farms the rich, black soil of central Ukraine and exports crops to Europe, is sowing 100 fewer hectares of corn this spring. The 70-year-old needs to save money after fertiliser prices soared following the war in Iran.

His biggest worry is about buying the diesel he will need to harvest his 1,200 hectares later this year. The cost of fuel has nearly doubled since U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran led to unprecedented disruption of energy supplies.

Despite its four-year war with Russia, Ukraine is still a major producer of grains, oilseeds and vegetable oils.

Ukraine exports its food products to 150 countries, economy ministry data showed, down from around 190 countries before Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The geographical distribution of shipments has changed as shipments to Asia, Oceania and the Middle East have declined, exports to Europe have increased and analysts say Russia has taken market share from Ukraine, especially for wheat.

The risk for Ukraine is that the Middle Eastern conflict is increasing Russia's economic advantage.

As a major oil and gas producer, Russia stands to gain from high energy prices and its farmers have cheap domestic supplies of the fertilisers and diesel Ukraine has to import.

Maliienko expects his production costs to climb by at least 10-15%. Unless a rapid resolution is achieved to the Middle Eastern conflict, they could soar by 60%.

"Our export potential could fall substantially," Maliienko said, standing before a row of tractors and seeders at his farm outside the village of Malopolovetske, less than 100 kilometres (62 miles) southwest of Kyiv.

"This year it will decline by 15% to 20%, and if the situation continues that could reach as much as 40%."

FARMING IS VITAL FOR UKRAINE

After Russia invaded and the Black Sea ports through which 90% of agricultural exports flow...